Network security Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Network security - Essay Example Technical security controls are made of three components: detective, corrective and preventive, which all work to mitigate risks within a system. The first step I will access the router through the web interface. This will allow me to configure encryption using the WPA2 or the pre-shared key. This will ensure that anyone who all devices must provide this key before joining the network. There are three IKE policy choices message encryption, message integrity hash algorithm and peer authentication method. The policies are satisfied by various encryption methods that are dependent on a number of factors such as type of hardware in place. The key length available when using encryption algorithm allows the definition of key length used in terms of bits. When it comes to choosing message encryption algorithm, 3des is the strongest when compared to DES. The sha encryption offers a better encryption type as compared to md5 when it comes to message integrity has algorithm. For the peer authentication method, the rsa-sig offers a stronger encryption. An intrusion detection system has powerful features that provide notification when an attack occurs. On the other hand, a detective prevention system only uses limited functions to thwart attacks from taking place. Detection system is also limited because it relies on copies of network packets, which must be received from another switch. This makes sensors operating in intrusion mode to be said as running in promiscuous mode. Compared to detection system, intrusion prevention is more robust and has better features because it operate in inline mode where it checks as packets flows in teatime. Therefore, it can prevent traffic from entering a given network in

Christmas - 8th Grade Expository Example Essay Example for Free

Christmas 8th Grade Expository Example Essay â€Å"City sidewalks, busy sidewalks dressed in holiday style†¦ In the air, there’s a feeling of Christmas†¦Ã¢â‚¬  My favorite holiday has always been Christmas. I love everything about it! One of the best things about Christmastime is that we get such a long time off from school. In addition to that, my family flies back home to Pennsylvania in December, so we always get to see snow. We also spend time with family and friends playing games and exchanging gifts, which is always a lot of fun. Of all the holidays, I think Christmas is the best! Towards the end of December, we all really need a break, and Christmas Break comes at just the right time, lasting just over two weeks! It’s so nice to have off from school at a time when there’s great holiday music on the radio and great sales in all the stores. Not to mention the fantastic foods filling my plate as I go to all the holiday get-togethers. I don’t like too many gatherings, though, sometimes I just like to rest. I try to spend most of my time on the long break relaxing and enjoying family. Speaking of family, I get to fly back home to Pennsylvania over Christmas Break to visit my relatives. It is always snowy in Pennsylvania in December, so that’s an exciting part our vacation for my sister and me. We go to my cousins’ house and ride four wheelers in the snow, pulling inner tubes behind them. Our parents usually get some great videos of us playing in the snow. Last year we stayed outside so long in a snowstorm, that our hair was caked with snow by the time we came in! It looked like we had white dreadlocks! It is always so fun having adventures with my cousins, aunts, uncles, and grandparents back home in Pennsylvania. In addition to all of our snowy adventures, we also spend lots of time indoors with famil y and friends playing games and exchanging gifts. My grandma buys tons of little gifts – mostly candy and dollar store items, but a few nice things, too – that she wraps up and uses as prizes in a game that the whole family plays. There are about twenty of us sitting around her long dining room table, and we roll dice for about two minutes. Whenever anyone rolls doubles, they get to take a present. When all the presents are gone, but there’s still time on the clock, you get to steal someone else’s present! It’s kind of hard to explain, but it’s the most fun our family has at the holidays. Spending time with all of my family over Christmas Break is a great time that is very special to me†¦and getting little gifts is an added bonus! Just like most people I know, I think Christmas is the best holiday ever! Having such a long time off from school is a much-needed break in the middle of the school year. Because the break is so long, my family can fit in time to fly back home to Pennsylvania to have some fun playing in the snow. The fun continues indoors with family games and gifts, always a highlight of the vacation. This vacation is something I look forward to all year round. Christmas brings me so much happiness†¦just like those Silver Bells. â€Å"Ring-a-ling†¦.Hear them ring†¦ Soon it will be Christmas Day.†

Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay

Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay Forecasting is supposed to be one of the oldest management activities. In biblical times there were frequent allusions to clairvoyants and prophets. Nowadays it is becoming increasingly necessary for companies to make forecasts; those that do not give the prospect to their competitors a clear advantage. No forecasting is a main cause of most of todays business failures. In the past, goods could be sold on company reputation alone and forecasting was not too important. In todays more competitive times, sentiment does not apply, and firms that do not challenge their selves to make an accurate forecast on which to base their future production will find it increasingly difficult to survive (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Forecasting is important for many aspects of the modern business. Organisations make plans which become effective at some point in the future so they need information about prevailing circumstances (Waters, 2003). This information must be forecast; but unfortunately forecasting is a difficult situation and despite its importance, progress in many areas has been limited (Waters, 2003). According to literature forecasting can be defined: Forecasting is predicting, projecting, or estimating some future event or condition which is outside an organizations control and provides a basis for managerial planning (Golden J. et.al, 1994, p.33) Forecasting is generally used to predict or describe what will happen (for example to sales demand, cash flow, or employment levels) given a set of circumstances or assumptions (Waddell D., et.al, 1994, p.41) Forecasting is a projection into the future of expected demand, given a stated set of environmental conditions (Mentzer J.T. Moon M.A., 2005, p.9) 2.3 Importance of Forecasting Todays globalized business market, the systematic move from push to pull manufacturing, and the rise in consumer oriented economies, have led to a much more complex forecasting world (Lapide, 2006). Forecasters are being asked to create plans for expanding geographies, increased numbers of sales channels, and broader, more diverse, and shorter life cycle product lines. This complexity means that markets are more dynamic and the business environment is not stable (Lapide, 2006). The importance of forecasting is finding in a great range of planning and decision making circumstances. It is essential to mention those perspectives that forecasting can become a useful tool for management in many departments of an organization. In marketing, a great amount of decisions can be improved significantly by connect them with dependable forecasts of market size and market characteristics (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Having this in mind for example, a company that produces and sells electrical devices should be able to forecast what the demand will be for each of its products by geographic region and type of consumer (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). In production an essential need of forecasting is the area of product demand. This relates with the both prediction of volumes mix so as the organization can plan its production schedule and organize appropriate its inventories (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Another area that the recent years have linked a lot with forecasting is finance and accounting. These departments must forecast cash flows and the rates at which various expenses and revenues will occur if they are to maintain company liquidity and operating efficiiency (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Due to the nowadays difficult economic conditions that the whole business markets face up the importance of forecasting has become more imperative than ever. Marketing practitioners regard forecasting as an important part of their jobs. For example, in Dalrymple (1975), 93% of the companies sampled pointed out that sales forecasting was one of the most critical aspects, or a very important aspect of their companys success. Also Jobber, Hooley and Sanderson (1985), in a survey of 353 marketing directors from British textile firms, found that sales forecasting was the most common of nine activities on which they reported (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). Moreover Dalrymple (1987), in a survey among 134 US companies, found that 99% prepared formal forecasts when they developed written marketing plans. Winklhofer et. al (1996) notes some basic factors that the importance of forecasting has become widely essential for the organizations in recent years: The increasing complexity of organizations and their environments led to difficulties for decision makers to take account of all the factors relating to the future growth of the organization into account; Organizations have moved towards more systematic decision making that contains explicit justifications for individual actions, and formalized forecasting is one way that these actions can be maintained; The development of the forecasting methods has enables not only forecasting experts but also managers to become familiar with these techniques. 2.4 Forecasting Methods Moving on, the next step is to present and to analyze the forecasting methods. Forecasting methods can be divided in three basic categories: a) Quantitative or Statistical b) Qualitative or Judgmental c) Time Horizon 2.5 Quantitative or Statistical Quantitative Forecasts base on mathematical models and suppose that past data and other relevant factors can be combined into reliable predictions of the future (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000). In preparing a quantitative forecast it should begin with a number of observed values, past data, or observations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). These observations may represent many things, from the actual number of units sold to the cost of producing each unit to the number of people employed (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Quantitative Forecasts can be divided into two alternative options; projective and casual. 2.5.1 Projective Methods These methods rely on historical data and they are known as time-series. These can be used to discover systematic, seasonal deviations in the data, cyclical patterns, trends and growth rates of the trends (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). Time-series analyze the data to find out which patterns exist and then develop a suitable forecast equation (Mentzer T. and Mark A.M., 2005). The main forecasting techniques included in this category are moving averages, exponential smoothing and a model for trend and seasonality. A short review of these methods follows. Moving Average Moving average takes account of the calculation of the average of the sample and then forecast the next period having as a driver this average. This is a proper method in order to predict from a series of data which has shown regular historical patterns and where there is a long series. Also they are suitable of predicting seasonal sales but they cant predict accurate rapid modifications in markets. Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing is the most popular and cost effective of the statistical methods. It bases on the principle that the latest data should be weighted more heavily and smoothers out cyclical variations to forecast the trend (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). It relies on the idea that as data gets older it becomes less relevant and should be given less weight (Waters, 2003). In order to make this calculation it is needed the old average, the actual new demand and a weighting factor (Wild, 2002). Model for seasonality and trend The techniques that have been discussed so far have assumed that the basic underlying pattern of the past sales data has been horizontal. Waters (2003) proposes a model for use under some specific circumstances such as seasonality and trend in the demand. Demand can be divided in separate parts and more specifically: a) underlying value, which characterizes the main demand that should be adjusted for seasonality and trend b) trend which is the change in demand, c) seasonality which is the cyclical variation around the trend and finally d) noise which is a random effect. 2.5.2 Casual Methods The core assumption behind the casual methods is to use refined and specific information concerning variables to develop a correlation between a lead event and the event being forecasted (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). The idea based on the hypothesis that there is a discernible relationship between the forecasted variable and a measurable independent variable (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). A typical example of casual methods is regression method. Regression Method By using a regression method the demand forecast is based on a relationship of one event to another. The use of regression method requires a large amount of data for the forecast variable and the casual variables. 2.6 Qualitative or Judgmental Qualitative Forecasts (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000) are based on opinions, knowledge and skills rather than more formal analysis. They are used where there is no historical data. These types of forecasts are one of the simplest and widely used forecasting approaches available (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Its core idea rely on the corporation of the executives by discussing and deciding as a group what their best estimate for is for the item to be forecast (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). The most important judgmental methods are Delphi, Market Surveys and Historical Analogy. Delphi In the Delphi method at least two rounds of forecasts are obtained independently from a small group of experts. This group can be between five and twenty experienced and suitable experts and poll them for their forecasts and reasons (Armstrong J.S, et.al, 2005). The experts never actually meet and typically do not know who the other panel members are (Wisniewski, 2006). After each round, the experts forecasts summed up and reported back to the experts (Armstrong J.S., 2006). The cycle can go on from a second to a third round and so on if appropriate (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Typically the Delphi method is used to produce a narrow range of forecasts rather than a single view of the future (Wisniewski, 2006). Market surveys Logic dictates that the most sensible approach to preparing a sales forecast might be ask ones customers (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). It is a simple matter to ask customers what their likely purchases will be for the period it is desired to forecast. So companies make surveys in order to collect these data from customers and then by analysing their answers produce the forecasts. This method is best used when the number of users is small, when they are likely to state their purchasing intention with reasonable accuracy and when the forecaster knows the extent of competition in the market-place and the companys likely share of the total market (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985, p. 131). Historical Analogy Under limited circumstances it may be possible to produce forecasts based on observed patterns of some similar variable in the past (Wisniewski, 2006).The concept of this method based on the product life-cycle which assumes that the most of the products follow the reasonable stages of introduction, growth, maturity, decline (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985) as the figure 2.1 shows. The product life-cycle theory has been applied in many industries and has proved useful in identifying future strategies for products and services (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Maturity Sales/Profit Decline Growth Introduction Time Figure 2.1: Product life cycle Source: (Wisniewski M. (2006), Quantitative Methods for Decision Makers (4th Edition), Prentice Hall, p. 295) 2.7 Time Horizon Forecasts can be classified in terms of time span they cover in the future. The basic types of time horizon forecasts are long-term, medium-term and short-term (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.161). The long-term forecasts cover a time span of 3-10 years and they are used in the analysis of standard commitments and can be characterized as strategic decisions. The medium-term forecasts are made for one year to support production planning in the face of highly cyclical demand and can be characterized as tactical decisions. Finally short-term forecasts cover a time of one week to three months and they are used to control manufacturing levels and stock replenishment in the face of short demand variation. Short-term forecasts are concerned for operational decisions (Korpela J. et.al, 1996; Waters, 2003). 2.8 Forecast Error Inaccurate forecasts are the single most common problem that every company faces. Nowadays due to the rise of the technology there are many events or areas that can be predicted such as 1) seasonality, 2) average relationships, 3) average cyclical patterns, 4) emerging technological trends and their influence and many other factors. But on the other hand because future is something unknown there are always situations that are very difficult to predict such as 1) special events, 2) competitive actions or reactions, 3) sales of new products, 4) the start and depth of recessions, 5) changes in trends, 6) changes in relationships or attitudes, 7) and technological innovations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Golden J. et.al, 1994, points out three ways-aspects that can reduce the forecast error by taking into consideration the followings: Knowing the market: take the pulse of those who will actually buy and use the product. Be independent. Deflate forecasts for a margin of safety. It is generally known that every forecaster knows that he/she should measure forecast errors. Most of them do it however only for the reason to see how well they are doing. The important is to measure forecasting errors for two primary reasons: to learn from them and to manage demand risk (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding learning from them, forecasts errors should be analyzed to access where errors are too high or have gotten to large so that more focus can be placed in those areas for improvement (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding managing for demand risk, users of the forecast need to know how accurate they are in order to leverage risk management strategies designed to mitigate the risk (Lapide L., 2007). 2.9 Forecasting methods criteria When carrying out market demand forecasts, one often confronts with the problem of the inappropriate selection of a forecast method. It should be noted that in every actual forecast situation methods have their advantages and disadvantages, hence, it is important to define and analyse forecast method selection criteria (Pilinkiene, 2008). In order to select the appropriate method several criteria should be considered such as a) forecast accuracy degree, b) time span, c) amount of necessary initial data, d) forecast costs, e) result implementation and applicability level (Pilinkiene, 2008). According to Cox and Mentzer study (Table 2.1) (1984;cited by Mentzer and Kahn,1995) identified accuracy (92%) and credibility (92%) as top criteria for choosing a forecast technique. Criteria Sample Size % Important Accuracy 205 92 Credibility 206 92 Customer Service Performance 199 77 Ease of Use 206 75 Inventory Turns 198 55 Amount of Data Required 205 46 Cost 205 41 Return on Investment 199 35 Table 2.1: Top criteria for choosing a forecast technique (Source: Mentzer J.T Kahn K.B., (1995) Forecasting Technique Familiarity, Satisfaction, Usage, and Application, Journal of Forecasting, vol.14, p.474) Moreover another important research made by Yokum and Armstrong (1995) (Table 2.2) which based in a survey among 322 experts in forecasting identified the most important criteria. There were 94 researchers, 55 educators, 133 practitioners (i.e. forecast preparers) and 40 decision makers (i.e. forecast users). From this study accuracy was the dominant criterion -rated 6.2 on average-, next was timeliness in providing forecasts, and cost savings resulting from improved decisions. After that five other criteria rated based on ease such as ease of use. Mean agreement rating Question Avg. Decision Maker (DM) Practitioner (PR) Educator (ED) Researcher (RS) Accuracy 6.20 6.20 6.10 6.09 6.39*DM,PR,ED Timeliness in providing forecasts 5.89 5.97 5.92 5.82 5.87 Cost savings resulting from improved decisions 5.75 5.97 5.62 5.66 5.89 Ease of interpretation 5.69 5.82 5.67 5.89 5.54 Flexibility 5.58 5.85*PR,ED,RS 5.63 5.35 5.54 Ease in using available data 5.54 5.79 5.44 5.52 5.59 Ease of use 5.54 5.84*PR,RS 5.39 5.77*PR, RS 5.47 Ease of implementation 5.41 5.80*PR,ED,RS 5.36 5.55 5.24 Incorporating judgmental input 5.11 5.15 5.19 5.12 4.98 Reliability of confidence int. 4.90 5.05 4.81 4.70 5.09 Development cost(computer, human resources) 4.86 5.10 4.83 5.02 4.70 Maintenance cost (data storage, modifications) 4.73 4.72 4.73 4.75 4.71 Theoretical relevance 4.40 3.72 4.43*DM 4.20*DM 4.81*DM *denotes significantly higher ratings (p Table 2.2: Importance of criteria in selecting a forecasting technique (scale- 1 unimportant to 7 important) (Source: Yokum, J. J.S. Armstrong (1995) Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods, International Journal of Forecasting, 11, p. 593) 2.10 Planning Practices for Improving Forecasting After the analysis of the available forecasting methods and their selection criteria the next step is to propose some planning practices that can improve forecasting, It is known that these practices are not necessary best fit with every company and before someone wants to implement them an evaluation of companys core practices should be made. That can help a company to identify its advantages and disadvantages in order to survive in todays tough market environment and with the help of these practices can become the leader of the market. The complexity and uncertainty that exist in the todays business environment creates many problems to every function of a company. This also affects supply chain management which its initial target is to meet the needs of the final consumer by supplying the right product at the right place, time and price (Helms et.al, 2000). This complexity elevates forecasting accuracy and effectiveness as an elusive target. Many companies are, however, making significant, improvements by using an approach that supports and facilitates the concept of supply chain management by improving the forecasting practices (Helms et.al, 2000). So the planning practices that can improve forecasting are: a) Sales and Operation Planning (SOP) and b) Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR). These practices will be analyzed and explained in the following subchapters. 2.10.1 Sales and Operation Planning****FRAMEWORKS*** Sales and Operating Planning (SOP), is a cross-functional process that brings together teams of individuals on a routine basis to plan for where businesses are going on a operational/tactical basis and is considered a supply chain best practice (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005; Lapide, 2006). Sales and Operations Planning (SOP) has emerged as a powerful decision-making tool for executives and managers (Wallace et.al, 2005). It is a set of decision making process that 1) balances demand and supply, 2) links a companys day-to-day operations with its strategic and business plans and 3) integrates operational planning with financial planning (Wallace et.al, 2005). ***ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ©ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÅ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽÂ £ÃƒÅ½ÃƒÅ½-ΜΑ ÃŽâ€Å"ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ 1,2,3** Each team member brings to the process a specific perspective during the development of supply and demand plans/forecasts (Lapide, 2006). Each SOP team member may have to generate, review and revise demand forecasts that reflect the aspects of a business with which they are most familiar (Lapide, 2006). SOP, leverages Supply-Demand Matching, an operating principle that involves balancing supply and demand over time in order to satisfy demand, optimize operations, and minimize wasted resources (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). Under an SOP process, a companys sales and marketing plans are aligned with the plans of operations, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement in order to jointly optimize future demand-supply operations. It is a process from which the final constrained and unconstrained demand forecasts are developed and then used to drive operational planning activities (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). ***Ά¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½-ÃŽÂ £ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤, ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽâ€Å"ÃŽÂ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¨ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ©*** The major input for the implementation of SP is the behavioural change of the people inside the organisation and is regarded to be as the most difficult element (Wallace, 2010). Other elements such as software tools, data and the specifics of the process may be essential, but theyre of far less significance. Taking this as a standard the point is that a successful implementation of SOP is a matter of change management. The amount of change is significant. Its not a matter of doing something better; its about doing things differently-to be better (Wallace, 2010). In order to understand SOP process in is important to present and explain the four fundamentals which are demand and supply, volume and mix figure 2.2. Volume (How much?, Rates, Product families) Supply Demand Mix (Which ones?, Timing/Sequence, Products/SKUs) Figure 2.2: The Four Fundamentals Source: Wallace T. Stahl B., (2005), Sales Operation Planning- The Next Generation, pp.6) SOP is a tool to balance demand and supply at the volume level. It deals with rates of sales and production, aggregate inventories and backlogs. It is typically expressed in product families or other aggregate groupings; it answers the question how much. At the mix level the matter is about with which individual products run first, second, third and which customer orders will ship when. It answers the question which ones giving the details (Wallace et.al, 2005). Another important mission for SOP is to tie together the companys operational plans with its financial plans. The financial plans represent, critically essential evident, to deliver X amount of revenue and profit dollars for a specific period of the year. These commitments are made to some very important people such as the corporate office, the board of the directors, the Wall Street and ultimately to owners of the business: the stockholders (Wallace et.al, 2005). On the other hand, the operational plans focus on things like procurement, production, sales, inventories and so on. When these operational plans are not aligned with the business and financial plans, there is a detach. (Wallace et.al, 2005). 2.10.1.1 Sales and Operation Planning Benefits Implementing SOP in a business the benefits will be essential and immediate. These benefits can be categorized into two groups, the hard benefits and the soft benefits. As far as it concerns the hard benefits these can be the following (Wallace et.al, 2005): Higher Customer Service, by developing the ability to ship on time and complete at a higher rate than before SOP. Lower Finished Goods Inventories, by doing a better job of shipping to customers with lower, not higher, inventories. Shorter Customer Lead Times, through an enhanced ability to manage the customer order backlog and keep it at a low level. More Stable Production Rates, due to the ability to predict the future shifts in customer demand sooner and thus make smaller adjustments to production rates. Higher Productivity, by avoiding extreme fluctuations in production volumes with their attendant layoffs and rehiring. Moving on to the soft benefits these include (Wallace et.al, 2005): Enhanced Teamwork, at both the executive and operating management levels, resulting from the holistic view of the business that SOP provides. Better Decisions, by decreasing effort and time. SOP offers, increases effectiveness which improves the quality and the structure of decisions on demand and supply issues. Greater Accountability and Control, due to the backward and forward visibility that SOP provides. 2.10.1.2 Examples of Implementing Sales and Operation Planning a) Coca-Cola Midi (CCM): In France there is a manufacturing regional plant that produces -over 700 SKUs, encompassing 79,000 tons- soft drinks concentrates and juice beverages bases for Europe, Asia and Africa. SOP was implemented at CCM when the plant was started in 1991. SOP is for CCM the backbone for planning, manufacturing and supply-chain activities. SOP enables disciplined and formalized communications across the company, and between all the suppliers, partners and customers. Continuous improvement in customer service, inventory management, obsolete products, and freight costs were some of SOP benefits after the implementation. (www.partnersforexcellence.com). b) ***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ΒΑΆºÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ΑΆºÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ºÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽÂ  ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Å"ΜΑ*** 2.10.2 Collaborative Planning Forecasting Replenishment (CPFR) Collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment (CPFR), is a revolutionary business practices where in trading partners use technology and a standard set of business processes for Internet-based collaboration on forecasts and plans for replenishment (KJR Consulting, 2002). CPFR can be categorized into these collaborative business practices that enabled trading partners to have visibility into ones other critical demand, order forecasts and promotional forecasts. The objective of CPFR is to improve efficiencies across the extended supply chain, reducing inventories, improving service levels and increasing sales (KJR Consulting, 2002). Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert embarked on the first CPFR pilot, involving Listerine products, in 1991. In their pilot, Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert used special CPFR software to exchange forecasts. Supportive data, such as past sales trends, promotion plans, and even the weather, were often transferred in an iterative fashion to allow them to converge on a single forecast in case their original forecast differed (Avin Y., 2001). As a result of CPFR implementation Warner-Lamberts service levels increased from 87% to 98%, while the lead times to deliver the product decreased from 21 to 11 days (Boone T. et.al, 2000).***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ΆÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽ-ΜΆ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ÃƒÅ½Ã…“ÃŽ-ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ** Also this pilot was very successful, having as a result an increase in Listerine sales and better fill rates, having also a reduction on inventory investment (Avin Y., 2001). The key idea behind CPRF is that the trading partners (retailer and manufacturer), work together in order to produce a common forecast. Both the retailer and the manufacturer collect market intelligence on product information, store programs etc., and share it in real-time over the Internet. In most cases, the retailer owns the sales forecast; if the manufacturer agrees with the forecast, automatic replenishments are made to the retailer via predetermined business contracts so that a specific level of inventory or customer service is maintained (Boone T. et.al, 2000). In the case that the retailer and the manufacturer cant agree on the forecasts or if there are exceptions, such as unusual demand season or a store opening, the forecasts are reconciled manually. An important point is before the implementation of CPFR when the partners should agree on several key questions such as how to measure service levels and stock-out, how to set inventory and service targets (Boone T. et.al, 2000). The difference between CPFR and other business process tools and initiatives, such as Efficient Consumer Response (ECR), is that the other models require critical mass before any benefits are realized. Promotional plans and the business goals are the most famous areas of collaboration between the trading partners. After that order/replenishment plans, inventory status and sales forecast seems to be very critical themes for this relationship. 2.10.2.1 CPFR Process Model ***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽÅ ¾ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ΑН ΒΠ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽÅ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢*** 2.10.2.2 CPFR Benefits There have been recorded and identified many benefits of CPFR. The CPFR documents that are available on the VICS Committee sites show that there is a 30%-40% improvement in forecast accuracy, significant increases in customer service, sales increase between 15% and 60% and reduction in days of supply 15%-20% (Sheffi Y., 2002). AMR Research (2001) reported a range of benefits that came through CPFR implementation in many companies and there are divided into retailer benefits and manufacturer benefits as it is shown in table 2.3. Retailer Benefits Typical Improvement Better store shelf stock rates 2% to 8% Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Higher sales 5% to 20% Lower logistics costs 3% to 4% Manufacturer Benefits Typical Improvement Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Faster replenishment cycles 12% to 30% Higher sales 2% to 10% Better customer service 5% to 10% Table 2.3: Typical CPFR Benefits Source: Sheffi Y.,(2002), The value of CPFR, RIRL Conference Proceedings As far as it concerns the retailers benefits the highest is the reduction in inventory levels which has a drop from 10% to 40%. After that the increase in sales from 5% to 20% is another essential benefit. On the other hand the manufacturers benefits relate again with a elimination in inventory levels from 10% to 40% and also it offers a faster replenishment cycles from 12% to 30%. In accordance with a questionnaire constructed by KJR Consulting and sent via e-mail to 130 GMA (Grocery Manufacturers of America) companies that have implement CPFR best practice a great range of benefits raised that can indicate the importance of CPRF for the modern complexity businesses. These benefits have been categorized in the following Figure 2.1. Figure 2.4: Anticipated Benefits of CPFR Sou

Is Charles Perrault’s Little Red Riding Hood Relevant to the Modern Wor

Is Charles Perrault’s Little Red Riding Hood Relevant to the Modern World? A story commonly spread through word of mouth, Charles Perrault wrote an early rendition of Little Red Riding Hood in 1697. Between the late 17th century and today, there have been a few changes in societal norms, customs, and understandings of social values. To summarize, laws based on religion have given way to laws based on science†¦in turn, scientists have taken their newfound social power and discovered ways to destroy all life on Earth†¦following that, humans have practiced leaving the planet, preparing for the inevitable day when our self-created nuclear holocaust gives us no other choice†¦and lastly, various oppressed social groups, recognizing that they would also like a seat on their starship to salvation, have fought for their civil rights and equality through various social reform movements. A side effect, political correctness, is the attempt to rid the English language of any terms, phrases, or expressions that would encourage our society to rema in rooted in its biased theories of the past. Thus, we are now at an age where a maxim is placed upon the empowerment of the individual, no matter who you are or what formerly oppressed group you may represent, with an equally strong maxim placed upon breaking any barriers that block the empowerment of the individual. That’s great†¦but what does it have to do with Little Red Riding Hood? With so much happening in the past four hundred years, stories which may have previously seemed perfect and timeless have perhaps become socially outdated. This could be the case with many fairy tales, and Perrault’s Little Red Riding Hood is certainly no exception. In general, his vers... ... has taken the civil rights movements of the 20th century and, perhaps, transformed them into raging individualism. The backwardness is clear: Whether it’s a hunter, woodcutter, or doctor, a person trying to save another’s life is admirable and a Good Samaritan, and most certainly not an oppressive chauvinist worthy of reprimand or lawsuits. Political correctness may have its values; however, for Garner and many other Americans, it represents social movements that have been taken too far. Through satire, Garner displays his yearning for simpler times, when wolves just ate little girls who talked to strangers. Works Cited Perrault, Charles. â€Å"Little Red Riding Hood.† The Classic Fairy Tales. Ed. Maria Tatar. New York: Norton, 1999. 11-13. Garner, James Finn. â€Å"Little Red Riding Hood.† Politically Correct Bedtime Stories. New York: MacMillan, 1994. 1-4.

Orthopraxy In Islam Essay -- essays research papers fc

Orthopraxy in Islam   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Islamic life is centered on the physical practice of prayer (salat). With that the religion of Islam itself is based in the methodical movement through which Muslims show their devotion to Allah. The prayer begins with the devotee standing, bending slowly into a sitting position and ending in full prostration. Bowing fully onto the ground is a practice that shows humility and represents the true devotion of members. Practice-centered religion differentiates itself from â€Å"orthodox† religion in that it focuses primarily on ritual practice, rather than theology or doctrine, orthodox meaning â€Å"correct opinion†. The most visible orthodox religion of America is Christianity. Christianity centers life around the opinions of the church with less emphasis on purity and behavior. Islamic life is distinctly based on what can be defined as â€Å"orthopraxy† or the importance of religious practice. The orthopraxy of Islam can be seen in at least th ree of the Five Pillars of Islam, salat, Ramadan and the hajj, which are also representative of Muslim faith and duties.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Salat, as mentioned earlier, is the performance of prayer five times a day. The prayer, which includes full prostration, is performed facing Mecca. In the The Meaning of the Glorious Koran, (the earliest source of Islamic writing as dictated to Mohammed), it is written, â€Å"Whencesoever thou comest forth (for prayer, O Mohammed) turn thy face toward the Inviolable Place of Worship. Lo! it is the Truth from thy Lord. Allah is not unaware of what ye do (Surah 2:149).† Implicit directions for prayer also display the amount of emphasis on practice. Salat must be performed five times daily, at specific times of the day: early morning, noon, mid-afternoon, sunset, and evening. Each Friday a congregational service is held at the mosque and every male is required to attend. Before prayer, four ritual aspects are required: ritual purification, proper covering of the body, proper intention, and facing Mecca, or qibla (1). The emphasis on purity is directly associated with prayer, as one must not be impure in any way when one prays. The ritual impurity associated with everyday living is known as najasa or hadath. Najasa is external impurity including but not limited to, urine, blood, pus, feces of animals and humans. Hadath is impurity of the soul... ...ractices of The Five Pillars of Islam, the original and continually practiced rituals of Muslims. The difference also involves the lifestyle of the Christians. In most Christian sects/denominations there is no encounter with personal circumambulation, prostration or ritual covering of the body. These physical aspects of Islam truly separate it from what can be considered orthodoxy. The faith and duties of Islam are inside of the practices performed. The Islamic people practice strict physical rituals that correspond directly with their belief system. The Five Pillars of Islam exemplify the practices of Islam in that they require physical practice including worship, behavior and ritual cleanliness. The practices are followed obediently by Muslims and are seen as enhancing the relationship one has with Allah. As Dr. Denny says, â€Å"Islam†¦on the other hand, view[s] religion as a way of life and a ritual patterning of that life under God’s lordship (1).† Works Cited 1.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  See Frederick Denny’s book, An Introduction to Islam pages 112-136. 2.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Pickthall, Mohammed Marmaduke, ed. The Meaning of the Glorious Koran. Mentor, NY, NY.

I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings Essay -- Essays Papers

I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings In the beginning of I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings, Marguerite, later known as Maya begins to tell the story of her childhood. When her parents divorced, they sent her & her brother, Bailey to live in Stamps, Arkansas with their Grandmother (Momma) and their Uncle Willie. The kids go to school in Stamps and work in the store that Momma and Uncle Willie own. One year, while they were in Stamps, their father came to visit. When he was getting ready to return to California, he asked the kids if they wanted to come back with him to live. They agreed. Momma was also glad to have them off her hands even though she enjoyed having them around. While they were in the car, their father revealed that they were going to St. Louis to see their mother. Maya and Bailey hadn’t seen her for a very long time to they were happy about the side trip. After three days in St. Louis, their father left again. They were there to live with their mother. Maya felt that he was a stranger anyway so it didn’t bother her at all. Maya and Bailey’s mother had three brothers who had good jobs with the city. Their family was respected in the area they lived in and everyone knew who they were. The children were also introduced to Mr. Freeman, their mother’s boyfriend. He didn’t interact with them much. He often came home late at night and they didn’t talk to him very much. One morning, after Maya’s mother had left, Mr. Freeman ca...

Deception Point Page 70

â€Å"Correct,† Tolland said. â€Å"This species would have collapsed under its own weight if it walked around on earth.† Corky's brow furrowed with annoyance. â€Å"Well, Mike, unless some caveman was running an antigravity louse farm, I don't see how you could possibly conclude a two-foot-long bug is earthly in origin.† Tolland smiled inwardly to think Corky was missing such a simple point. â€Å"Actually, there is another possibility.† He focused closely on his friend. â€Å"Corky, you're used to looking up. Look down. There's an abundant antigravity environment right here on earth. And it's been here since prehistoric times.† Corky stared. â€Å"What the hell are you talking about?† Rachel also looked surprised. Tolland pointed out the window at the moonlit sea glistening beneath the plane. â€Å"The ocean.† Rachel let out a low whistle. â€Å"Of course.† â€Å"Water is a low-gravity environment,† Tolland explained. â€Å"Everything weighs less underwater. The ocean supports enormous fragile structures that could never exist on land-jellyfish, giant squid, ribbon eels.† Corky acquiesced, but only slightly. â€Å"Fine, but the prehistoric ocean never had giant bugs.† â€Å"Sure, it did. And it still does, in fact. People eat them everyday. They're a delicacy in most countries.† â€Å"Mike, who the hell eats giant sea bugs!† â€Å"Anyone who eats lobsters, crabs, and shrimp.† Corky stared. â€Å"Crustaceans are essentially giant sea bugs,† Tolland explained. â€Å"They're a suborder of the phylum Arthropoda-lice, crabs, spiders, insects, grasshoppers, scorpions, lobsters-they're all related. They're all species with jointed appendages and external skeletons.† Corky suddenly looked ill. â€Å"From a classification standpoint, they look a lot like bugs,† Tolland explained. â€Å"Horseshoe crabs resemble giant trilobites. And the claws of a lobster resemble those of a large scorpion.† Corky turned green. â€Å"Okay, I've eaten my last lobster roll.† Rachel looked fascinated. â€Å"So arthropods on land stay small because the gravity selects naturally for smallness. But in the water, their bodies are buoyed up, so they can grow very large.† â€Å"Exactly,† Tolland said. â€Å"An Alaskan king crab could be wrongly classified as a giant spider if we had limited fossil evidence.† Rachel's excitement seemed to fade now to concern. â€Å"Mike, again barring the issue of the meteorite's apparent authenticity, tell me this: Do you think the fossils we saw at Milne could possibly have come from the ocean? Earth's ocean?† Tolland felt the directness of her gaze and sensed the true weight of her question. â€Å"Hypothetically, I would have to say yes. The ocean floor has sections that are 190 million years old. The same age as the fossils. And theoretically the oceans could have sustained life-forms that looked like this.† â€Å"Oh please!† Corky scoffed. â€Å"I can't believe what I'm hearing here. Barring the issue of the meteorite's authenticity? The meteorite is irrefutable. Even if earth has ocean floor the same age as that meteorite, we sure as hell don't have ocean floor that has fusion crust, anomalous nickel content, and chondrules. You're grasping at straws.† Tolland knew Corky was right, and yet imagining the fossils as sea creatures had robbed Tolland of some of his awe over them. They seemed somehow more familiar now. â€Å"Mike,† Rachel said, â€Å"why didn't any of the NASA scientists consider that these fossils might be ocean creatures? Even from an ocean on another planet?† â€Å"Two reasons, really. Pelagic fossil samples-those from the ocean floor-tend to exhibit a plethora of intermingled species. Anything living in the millions of cubic feet of life above the ocean floor will eventually die and sink to the bottom. This means the ocean floor becomes a graveyard for species from every depth, pressure, and temperature environment. But the sample at Milne was clean-a single species. It looked more like something we might find in the desert. A brood of similar animals getting buried in a sandstorm, for example.† Rachel nodded. â€Å"And the second reason you guessed land rather than sea?† Tolland shrugged. â€Å"Gut instinct. Scientists have always believed space, if it were populated, would be populated by insects. And from what we've observed of space, there's a lot more dirt and rock out there than water.† Rachel fell silent. â€Å"Although†¦,† Tolland added. Rachel had him thinking now. â€Å"I'll admit there are very deep parts of the ocean floor that oceanographers call dead zones. We don't really understand them, but they are areas in which the currents and food sources are such that almost nothing lives there. Just a few species of bottom-dwelling scavengers. So from that standpoint, I suppose a single-species fossil is not entirely out of the question.† â€Å"Hello?† Corky grumbled. â€Å"Remember the fusion crust? The mid-level nickel content? The chondrules? Why are we even talking about this?† Tolland did not reply. â€Å"This issue of the nickel content,† Rachel said to Corky. â€Å"Explain this to me again. The nickel content in earth rocks is either very high or very low, but in meteorites the nickel content is within a specific midrange window?† Corky bobbed his head. â€Å"Precisely.† â€Å"And so the nickel content in this sample falls precisely within the expected range of values.† â€Å"Very close, yes.† Rachel looked surprised. â€Å"Hold on. Close? What's that supposed to mean?† Corky looked exasperated. â€Å"As I explained earlier, all meteorite mineralogies are different. As scientists find new meteorites, we constantly need to update our calculations as to what we consider an acceptable nickel content for meteorites.† Rachel looked stunned as she held up the sample. â€Å"So, this meteorite forced you to reevaluate what you consider acceptable nickel content in a meteorite? It fell outside the established midrange nickel window?† â€Å"Only slightly,† Corky fired back. â€Å"Why didn't anyone mention this?† â€Å"It's a nonissue. Astrophysics is a dynamic science which is constantly being updated.† â€Å"During an incredibly important analysis?† â€Å"Look,† Corky said with a huff, â€Å"I can assure you the nickel content in that sample is a helluva lot closer to other meteorites than it is to any earth rock.† Rachel turned to Tolland. â€Å"Did you know about this?† Tolland gave a reluctant nod. It hadn't seemed a major issue at the time. â€Å"I was told this meteorite exhibited slightly higher nickel content than seen in other meteorites, but the NASA specialists seemed unconcerned.† â€Å"For good reason!† Corky interjected. â€Å"The mineralogical proof here is not that the nickel content is conclusively meteoritelike, but rather that it is conclusively non-earth-like.† Rachel shook her head. â€Å"Sorry, but in my business that's the kind of faulty logic that gets people killed. Saying a rock is non-earth-like doesn't prove it's a meteorite. It simply proves that it's not like anything we've ever seen on earth.† â€Å"What the hell's the difference!† â€Å"Nothing,† Rachel said. â€Å"If you've seen every rock on earth.† Corky fell silent a moment. â€Å"Okay,† he finally said, â€Å"ignore the nickel content if it makes you nervous. We still have a flawless fusion crust and chondrules.† â€Å"Sure,† Rachel said, sounding unimpressed. â€Å"Two out of three ain't bad.† 83 The structure housing the NASA central headquarters was a mammoth glass rectangle located at 300 E Street in Washington, D.C. The building was spidered with over two hundred miles of data cabling and thousands of tons of computer processors. It was home to 1,134 civil servants who oversee NASA's $15 billion annual budget and the daily operations of the twelve NASA bases nationwide.